Possible scenario
Peace Push Stalls
25% Chance
Moscow uses the Ryazan refinery strike to claim Kyiv is not negotiating in good faith, while Ukraine points to the destruction of Kyiv-region power generation. The US process does not formally collapse, but a Putin meeting is pushed back and military escalation dominates the near-term agenda.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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