Possible scenario
Managed Escalation
40% Chance
Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure and Kyiv preserves the option of refinery strikes, but both sides avoid steps that would formally end the US-mediated channel. This is the most likely path because Moscow and Kyiv both want leverage before any Putin-Trump or envoy-level meeting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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