Possible scenario
Energy Truce Emerges
20% Chance
Washington converts the mutual vulnerability of power plants and refineries into a narrow de-escalation proposal. Kyiv and Moscow accept a limited energy-infrastructure pause without resolving front-line issues or sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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