Possible scenario
Calibrated Military Response
27% Chance
South Korea responds with visible but controlled military measures such as surveillance, public warnings, and information operations. This outcome is plausible because Seoul will face pressure to show resolve after soldiers are wounded, while still avoiding a conflict spiral.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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