Possible scenario
Pragmatic Safe Harbor
40% Chance
The CFTC’s first crypto rulebook defines self custody around unilateral control of private keys and avoids treating neutral wallet software as a regulated custodian. This is the most likely path because the agency is asserting authority after the CLARITY Act failed, but still needs a defensible rule that can survive litigation and industry implementation.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- GLXY+2.7%
- +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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