Possible scenario
Compliance Burden Rises
30% Chance
The CFTC defines self custody but pairs it with stricter standards for retail leverage, custody disclosures, and platform controls. This outcome is plausible because the agency’s recent rulemaking push follows the FTX collapse and the Senate’s failure to pass a statutory market-structure bill.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Tickers
- COIN-2.6%
- HOOD-1.5%
- -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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