Possible scenario
Threats Stay Rhetorical
45% Chance
Iran continues warning Iraq and the United States but does not close its airspace or block regional overflights. Baghdad keeps Iranian airline suspensions in place while seeking clarification from Washington on sanctions exposure, making this the most likely near-term outcome.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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