Possible scenario
Regional Compliance Widens
20% Chance
Other regional governments reassess Iranian airline access to avoid secondary-sanctions risk. Tehran protests but mainly responds through diplomatic and regulatory pressure rather than immediate airspace closure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.