Possible scenario
Partial US Reversal
30% Chance
Washington looks for a face-saving compromise after EU and UN pressure, granting narrow travel permissions while keeping the broader Palestinian visa restrictions in place. This outcome preserves U.S. leverage but reduces near-term friction with Brussels and the UN.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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