Possible scenario
Ban Mostly Holds
45% Chance
The Trump administration refuses the EU request and keeps the two-year visa ban largely intact, arguing that Palestinian officials have not met U.S. security and recognition conditions. Washington may allow technical contacts with the UN but avoids a political concession while European criticism remains mostly diplomatic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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