Possible scenario
Iran War Escalates
20% Chance
A renewed Israeli campaign inside Iran could trigger direct Iranian retaliation and force a national-security suspension of the campaign period. This is less likely than a managed delay, but the combination of military warnings, earlier strikes, and nuclear-program risk makes it credible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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