Possible scenario
Election Still Proceeds
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Israel avoids a formal election postponement despite continued Iranian threat warnings. The cabinet and IDF keep strikes limited or defensive, while the Central Elections Committee proceeds with the October 27 timetable under tighter security rules.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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