Possible scenario
Limited U.S. Reprisal
42% Chance
Washington responds to the higher reported death toll with narrowly scoped strikes on Iran-backed militia infrastructure and additional force-protection measures. The White House tries to restore deterrence without triggering a broader U.S.-Iran exchange.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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