Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
18% Chance
The death-toll report increases political urgency, but Gulf intermediaries press both sides to halt tit-for-tat attacks. The most likely diplomatic outcome is not a full peace deal but a quiet reduction in strikes and clearer deconfliction rules.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.4%
- Energy -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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