Possible scenario
Union-Government Bargaining
25% Chance
The government tries to split moderate unions from more confrontational blocs by offering talks on public-sector pay, targeted household support, or partial indexation while defending the bulk of the savings package. This reduces the probability of rolling strikes and supports a modest risk-on reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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