Possible scenario
Nationwide Strike Escalation
25% Chance
The arrests and images of fires galvanize unions and student groups, turning a Paris-centered protest wave into a broader strike cycle. Disruptions hit rail, logistics, schools, and selected refinery or depot operations, creating a clearer near-term economic cost.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.