Possible scenario
Contained Urban Unrest
40% Chance
The most likely path is that clashes remain concentrated in Paris and a few large cities, with Gérald Darmanin's successor at the Interior Ministry using arrests, dispersal orders, and negotiated march routes to prevent sustained disorder. Unions keep mobilizing against the €43 billion savings plan, but the protests do not immediately paralyze national transport or fuel supply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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