Benign Price Cooling

The most likely path is that investors treat the drop in export price growth to 40.9% as a cooling from very elevated levels rather than a sign of collapsing external demand. Record chip exports and recent won strength make a softer export-price print consistent with lower inflation pressure and still-resilient trade volumes.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.