Possible scenario
Street-Level Escalation
20% Chance
The failed talks could push the dispute into public demonstrations and sharper city-federal confrontation. Protests remain a local political issue, but they increase pressure on both Trump and Mamdani to harden their positions.
Tickers
- GEO+1.1%
- CXW+1.1%
- AXON+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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