Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
20% Chance
Regional intermediaries, especially Oman and Qatar, push for a pause because Gulf exporters and China have strong incentives to keep oil moving. A narrow maritime arrangement is more plausible than a comprehensive political settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.4%
- Energy -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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