Possible scenario
Contained Naval Escalation
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a sharper but still bounded naval confrontation. Washington and partners increase escort operations outside Hormuz, while Iran continues calibrated attacks intended to pressure the blockade without triggering a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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