Possible scenario
Regional escalation
20% Chance
The Houthis respond to the Saudi campaign by widening attacks on shipping, Saudi airports, or energy infrastructure. This is less likely than a contained campaign but plausible because the Riyadh strike already showed Houthi willingness to hit deep inside Saudi territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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