Possible scenario
Diplomatic de-escalation
25% Chance
Oman and the UN use the renewed Western role to press both Riyadh and the Houthis back toward a ceasefire formula. Saudi Arabia may accept a face-saving pause if Houthi long-range attacks stop and aid access is expanded.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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