Possible scenario
Hezbollah Retaliation Escalates
23% Chance
Hezbollah judges the Mansouri blasts as crossing a red line and launches a more significant retaliation into northern Israel. Israel expands attacks beyond the immediate border area, raising the odds that the November 2024 ceasefire effectively collapses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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