Possible scenario
Contained Buffer Campaign
38% Chance
Israel continues demolition and strike operations around Mansouri while avoiding a declared ground offensive deeper into Lebanon. Hezbollah responds with limited fire to preserve deterrence, but Washington and Paris keep both sides inside an informal ceiling.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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