Possible scenario
Stalemated Border War
38% Chance
Eritrean forces hold parts of northern and central Tigray while Ethiopian units struggle to assemble a decisive counteroffensive. The conflict becomes a grinding regional war with intermittent artillery, drone strikes, and humanitarian access failures, but no immediate collapse of the Ethiopian state.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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