Possible scenario
Ethiopian Counteroffensive
24% Chance
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government prioritizes the Eritrean threat and shifts additional federal units, drones, and militia allies north. Ethiopia may coordinate tactically with Tigrayan forces despite the broken Pretoria framework, creating a volatile but more unified anti-Eritrean front.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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