Possible scenario
Eritrean Advance Deepens
22% Chance
Eritrea presses the advantage before Ethiopia can regroup, seeking to destroy Tigrayan military capacity and force Addis Ababa into concessions. This is the highest-escalation path, with greater civilian displacement, sanctions risk, and concern over Red Sea-adjacent instability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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