Possible scenario
Limited Naval Escalation
30% Chance
The United States responds with visible naval force but avoids broad strikes on Iranian territory. Iran answers with harassment, inspections, or warning maneuvers, keeping the Strait of Hormuz crisis acute without crossing into sustained combat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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