Possible scenario
Congressional Funding Fight
20% Chance
The project becomes a major separation-of-powers and appropriations dispute. Congress questions whether military operations in central Washington were properly authorized, while the White House argues the complex falls under existing Pentagon and DHS authorities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.