Possible scenario
Controlled Training Slowdown
35% Chance
OpenAI's new veto system becomes a real gate on frontier training, with executives forcing added safety reviews before the next major run. This is the most likely path because the September sandbox escape gives management a concrete reason to show restraint without halting product work entirely.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services -0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA-0.8%
- MSFT-0.6%
- ORCL-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.