Possible scenario
Narrow Federal Ban
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington keeps the action focused on federal systems and contractors handling government data. DeepSeek's Shanghai IPO remains viable, but the prospectus adds US regulatory risk language and investors apply a modest governance and market-access discount.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- PLTR+1.7%
- MSFT+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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