Possible scenario
Beijing Retaliates
15% Chance
China treats the US federal action as discriminatory and responds with investigations or procurement limits on US AI and cloud vendors. This is less likely than a narrow response, but it would have a clearer cross-border technology read-through.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.7%
- MSFT-1.3%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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