Possible scenario
Regional Retaliation
20% Chance
The Houthis attempt to reframe the strikes as part of a Saudi-backed campaign and retaliate beyond Yemen. This scenario creates the clearest market risk because shipping, insurance, and oil-price channels would become more directly exposed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.