Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
25% Chance
Oman, the UN special envoy, and Saudi Arabia move quickly to prevent renewed fighting from derailing cease-fire understandings developed since 2023. Both sides preserve military pressure but signal willingness to restore de-escalation channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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