Possible scenario
Contained Air Campaign
45% Chance
The recognized Yemeni government, likely with Saudi-enabled intelligence or air support, continues limited strikes around Sanaa while avoiding a broader ground offensive. The Houthis absorb damage but keep retaliation mostly inside Yemen, making this the most likely near-term path after the claim of responsibility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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