Possible scenario
Restrictions Tighten
28% Chance
China uses export approvals to pressure Washington over tariffs and technology controls. The policy remains short of a formal ban, but buyers face longer approval times, higher prices and more uncertainty over neodymium-iron-boron magnet supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +2.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.8%
- Industrials -1.6%
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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