Possible scenario
Managed Licensing Stabilizes
45% Chance
Beijing keeps rare-earth magnets as a bargaining tool but avoids a full cutoff that would damage Chinese exporters and invite harsher US retaliation. August's 20% decline is treated as a controlled reduction rather than a systemic supply shock.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- F+0.5%
- RTX-0.5%
- MP-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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