Protracted Northern Stalemate

Neither side achieves a decisive breakthrough, and fighting settles into a grinding conflict across Tigray, Afar, and parts of Amhara. This outcome is likely if Tigrayan forces retain enough mobility to deny federal control of major routes while the Ethiopian army prevents another rapid rebel advance.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.