Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Incident
45% Chance
The strike is treated as a serious but isolated maritime-security incident rather than the start of a sustained Houthi campaign. China uses channels with Iran, Oman and Houthi officials to seek assurances, while shipowners temporarily tighten routing and security procedures near Bab el-Mandeb.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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