Possible scenario
China Brokers De-escalation
15% Chance
Beijing leans on its relationships with Iran, Gulf states and Houthi intermediaries to secure a rapid de-escalation. The key outcome is not a full political settlement in Yemen, but a practical assurance that Chinese-linked vessels will not be targeted.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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