Possible scenario
Damaging Direct Landfall
30% Chance
Simon comes ashore as a major hurricane along the southwestern coast, stressing areas still sensitive after Otis and Polo. The most likely damage channels are power cuts, flooded roads, port disruption, damaged hotels, and emergency federal spending by the Sheinbaum administration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Utilities -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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