Possible scenario
Baja Disruption Spreads
15% Chance
After Polo recently breached Baja defenses, Simon’s track or rain bands create renewed pressure on the peninsula’s grid, roads, and tourism hubs. The main risk is not national macro stress but a second storm-related hit to confidence in coastal infrastructure resilience.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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