Possible scenario
U.S. Hardens Sanctions
20% Chance
Trump's team may conclude that the Kremlin rejected a political opening and move to show leverage. The likely response would be incremental enforcement against sanctions evasion, shadow-fleet shipping, or dual-use technology channels rather than a sudden economy-wide embargo.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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