Possible scenario
Talks Stall Quietly
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a prolonged impasse: the Kremlin rejects a public sanctions-for-prisoners formula but keeps lower-profile channels open through diplomats, intelligence officials, and intermediaries. Trump avoids a major immediate escalation while testing whether Moscow will accept narrower humanitarian terms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.