Possible scenario
Revised Deal Emerges
25% Chance
A narrower arrangement becomes possible after the Kremlin rejects a broad public bargain. The U.S. offers non-core concessions, such as visa processing, diplomatic property issues, or limited aviation waivers, rather than headline financial sanctions relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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