Possible scenario
Damaging Evidence Emerges
28% Chance
Records or witness testimony produce evidence that strengthens the pay-to-play narrative, including communications about the undisclosed lobbyist and the alleged $100,000 payment request. The controversy becomes a larger ethics problem for the Trump administration and may reach inspectors general or prosecutors.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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