Possible scenario
Administration Contains Probe
22% Chance
The administration narrows Guilfoyle's role and argues that career officials handled the LNG transaction. This outcome does not end partisan criticism, but it prevents the probe from materially disrupting the deal or broader U.S.-Greece energy diplomacy.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.