Possible scenario
Contained Security Crackdown
45% Chance
The most likely path is a managed UK counter-intelligence response: prosecutions, deportations, asset freezes, and tighter protection for journalists, dissidents, military sites, and laboratories. The Iran-linked activity remains serious but does not produce a successful attack or a major rupture beyond the current sanctions track.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.1%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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