Possible scenario
Mainstream Policy Hardens
26% Chance
To blunt AfD momentum, CDU/CSU leaders and some state premiers adopt tougher language on eventual returns after a peace settlement. The shift remains framed as voluntary and conditional on safety assessments, but it narrows the political center's previous open-ended stance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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